Insights

Conclusion up front: Although there is room for discussions, it seems likely that US effective tariffs, even after negotiations, are likely to rise to ~20-25% (vs ~3% in '23). This returns US beyond levels of Smoot-Hawley Act that meaningfully disrupted...

Over the past decade, Australian equities have delivered a solid, if slightly underwhelming absolute return of 7.67% p.a.1 What has been particularly noticeable, however, is the large underperformance when compared to international equities which have returned 13.09% p.a. 2 over...

The Mason Stevens OCIO international equity sector review has just been completed. This was a focused review of who we believe to be the best managers in market across the international equity asset class. This review has in turn informed...

Following on from the summaries of seven themes published at the start of September, we have continued exploring the broad topics below. Technological breakthroughs: Ongoing advancements in technology, such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and automation, will continue to disrupt industries...

Thematic ETFs have gained considerable attention and popularity in the investment landscape, offering distinct advantages for investors seeking exposure to specific themes or sectors. These ETFs provide several benefits that make them attractive as investment options.

As always, the quarterly US earnings reports are very closely watched for how the global economy is fairing. The combination of near full employment, higher than normal personal saving rates and an increased demand post the COVID 19 pandemic, theoretically...

When compared to other Equity Emerging Markets, India’s absolute and relative returns have stalled since late November 2022 as global investors have moved back into Technology focused markets such as Korea and Taiwan post China’s step change in their Covid...

Heading into this past earnings season investors were curious to see if the rapid increase in rates by the RBA over the past 10months had finally started to take their toll on earnings, or if companies were still holding up...

Lithium has become one of the hottest topics over the past 18-24 months, with many listed lithium companies seeing meteoric rises in their share prices over this period. The supply and demand issues have been widely reported during this time,...

We are nearing the end of the Aussie reporting season now, having seen over 80% of companies report (which makes up 90% of the market cap). Following on from the US earnings season last month, investors were interested to see...

We are just over halfway through the most anticipated US earnings season for some time. The market has been desperate to get some real datapoints on how the US and to some extent the global consumer is travelling. Therefore now...

Banks are regularly looked at as a barometer for economic expectations, with their earnings viewed as a key signpost to investors across the globe. This US reporting season is no different. With all eyes firmly on the banks to see...

Global equity markets experiencing a torrid time of late, down heavily since the turn of the year. This has seen plenty of investors look to try time the market by picking the bottom of the drop, or even selling too...

"To be an investor is to live constantly at the intersection of story and uncertainty. We build our mental models, frameworks, and processes to try to accurately price securities and overlay them with a story about the economic, geopolitical, and...

Investing has come a long way in the last 50 years, pioneered by an increase in access to information and access to trading platforms. One of the changes to come from this is a rise in the popularity of passive...

Over the past few weeks, we’ve begun to revisit the real asset space – exploring exposures which offer uncorrelated, and real returns. Soft commodities, whilst vital to our existence, have historically played a bit-part role in investor portfolios – despite...

Global markets are currently stuck in an almighty game of tug of war, with many market participants holding disparate outlooks in the face of rising economic uncertainty, multi-decade high inflation prints, and the impending tightening of monetary policy from developed...

The Russian/Ukraine war, strong demand recovery, inflation and weak supply growth have all combined to contribute to significantly higher oil prices to date through CY2022. Consequently, one of the best performing equity sectors globally is unsurprisingly the Energy sector. In...

A hot topic of debate over the past few years has been the outsized controls which social media networks have on the dissemination of information, where the concept of “free speech” has been debated time and time again against the...

As equity markets continue to broadly shrug off geopolitical turmoil, the same big picture debates are coming back to the fore, perhaps with a few minor tweaks. Are we in a mid-cycle slow down whereby central banks can adjust monetary...

The importance of cybersecurity has continued to grow as more and more of our lives are transferred to the digital realm. The threat of Russian cyber warfare, the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack, and the SolarWinds hack have all demonstrated the...

SaaS (Software as a Service) businesses are one of the fastest growing segments within the IT industry, and have been one of the largest beneficiaries from the COVID-19 pandemic given the growing importance of flexible, affordable and cloud based technological...

January has seen equity markets selloff considerably, in response to the expected acceleration in rate hike timelines and earlier than expected announcement of Quantitative Tightening (QT) in the US. Whilst this has seen the majority of shares decline, some sectors...

Last week we wrote about the decarbonisation of the global economy, and the subsequent opportunities available in the lithium industry. Central to the task at hand in reaching net zero emissions is developing scalable and efficient technology, which enables the...

Decarbonisation has been one of the most talked about phenomenon’s over the past few years, as governments and institutions grapple with how to meaningfully reduce emissions to a point where we can avoid irreparable damage to our planet. Over the...

Over the past two weeks, oil and gas have hit 7-year highs, while coal has hit all-time highs. For some in the market, this may have come as somewhat of a shock – aren’t we supposed to be transitioning away...

COVID-19 can be viewed as one of the largest points of inflection in our modern society – where there has been a significant shift in thinking towards a greater prioritisation of one’s health. The Australian nation that is re-opening is...

As governments around the world continue to loosen restrictions, the travel industry stands out as one of the most significant beneficiaries of the international re-opening trade. When looking into the main players within this space internationally, a trend is clear...

Facebook, Amazon , Apple , Microsoft and Google are now the largest companies in the SP500. Can the market head higher despite the dominance of their business as we head into a post pandemic environment?

It’s hard to argue that countries with younger demographics, lower public indebtedness and without legacy technology have longer growth runways ahead of them; we’ve known about the opportunities in emerging and frontier markets for years and decades already. The hardest...

I really like analysing utilities, as they tend to perform like bond proxies providing regular income (most of the time), where a substantial portion of their business comes from regulated activities with high degrees of certainty. However, we’d be remiss...

The earnings season is nearing completion, and there has been a clear outperformance of growth over value. Some of the greatest upside surprises have come from the Information Technology industry, which should come at no shock given the impact of...

The Delta variant and Chinese restrictions on iron ore imports has created an uneven earnings season, with some companies flourishing amidst lockdown restrictions, and others being impacted by increasing uncertainty. Within the telecommunications industry, results have been mixed, however significant...

Even for the most digitally inept of us, the amount of time we have spent online has gone up. This has enforced lifestyle changes which will likely be irreversible, where in the past, onboarding into the more efficient digital world...

We published a morning note on 28-July outlining the likely outperformance to be received from the likes of CBA and NAB and the potential for large share buyback programmes to commence, creating a strong short-term positive impulse for their share...

Web 3.0 will serve as one of the most important technological developments of our generation, and promises a more secure and efficient internet, operating through peer-to-peer (P2P) networks which don’t require third parties. No longer will Facebook and Google be...

Many reading this note may remember a time before the internet, when the term “information superhighway” was used unironically and the most complicated pages out there were static text documents with some coloured text. The evolution of what we now...

Fintech seeks to disrupt traditional financial systems through the creation and implementation of innovative technology solutions, intended to increase efficiency, generate synergies, and improve the customer experience. What Fintech offers is the provision of financial services made mostly in conjunction...

The need to transition to more renewable energy sources is a challenge which is paramount to the survival of the human race. However, the transition requires the development and acceptance of technologies able to efficiently supplant both existing energy needs,...

Our domestic banking landscape has changed since COVID first impacted our economy last year, where banks were forced by regulators to retain more capital, while our yield curve flattened detracting from net interest margins, and lending volumes plummeted. As 2021...

As consumers continue to transition away from cash, the payments ecosystem is becoming increasingly more integral to our global economy. Apple Pay has rose to prominence, capturing 5% of the global digital payments market through its contactless payment method, with...

Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) serve as one of the only constants within the technology of the now, and that of the future. Despite previously used only for generating computer graphics, they are now set to play a key role in...

Working from home (WFH) is by no means a recent phenomenon, where the movement has grown in popularity ever since the 1970s as female workforce participation rates increased. This trend gained speed as technology developed, making it more practical, and...

Our lives are becoming increasingly lived through technology – whether it’s social media, mobile phones, email, video conferencing or video games – and as this trend continues, increased demand for better products and services has provided ample investment opportunities to...

To date, our risk-off series has focused largely on investments which are inversely related to market sentiment, and as a result may only be suitable within short-medium term time frames. These solutions may also not be suitable for those investors...

3D printing offers a glimpse into the future, where manufacturing and transport networks could be completely overhauled through on-demand, mobile and flexible production channels. Whilst the industry has been in existence for decades, recent developments have made mainstream adoption increasingly...

In the multitude of notes we’ve written about equities, most will make a basic assumption that we are ‘long’, i.e. we are buying the security or fund with the view that the market is going up. But what if we...

As the COVID-19 vaccine has been rolled out around the world, investors have flocked towards the re-opening trade - where improved economic growth outlooks would see certain industries outperform. More broadly speaking, this has also involved a move from growth...

The father of value investing, Benjamin Graham, proposed in his 1949 book “The Intelligent Investor” that “chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low quality stocks..” Seventy years later this statement remains relevant, where even during the largest...

Growth investors have enjoyed a stellar decade, supported by an equity bull market and record low interest rates. However, with increasing inflationary expectations and lofty growth stock valuations, investors have begun to rotate into other areas of the market. In...

The relationship between precious metals and inflation has been shown empirically in the past, including gold and the ‘white metals’, being silver, platinum and palladium. These are also “real assets”, physical pieces of ‘something’ which we believe to have some...

Gambling predates almost everything known in human existence, with the first instances of gambling recorded in the Stone Age – almost 3.3 million years ago. Since then, it has evolved dramatically to become a USD $465 billion-dollar industry. In today’s...

Deliveroo’s recent IPO was the worst in the history of the London Stock Exchange, falling 26% on its first day of trading. With structural tailwinds driving competitor share prices higher and higher throughout 2020, what exactly went wrong? In today’s...

The AUD/USD has appreciated by 33% since March 2020 and has brought foreign exchange (FX) risk into the forefront of the minds of investors looking at US equity and fixed income markets. We have discussed the factors which have driven,...

We tend to overconsume things that have no monetary cost. In economics, we call this the “free rider problem” where consumers do not value the inherent costs and benefits of things that are free. Think about it yourself, what is...

Swipe, swipe, partner for life…? Dating apps have revolutionised the dating industry, with the advent of Tinder in 2013 flipping the script on existing matchmaking services by placing the onus on users to pick and choose from singles in their...

It is well known that certain companies, such as the mega-tech FAANG stocks, are trading at valuations that are high relative to historical averages. If you’re wondering why – there are two main answers. Investors and traders believe the valuation...