- Currency & Cash
Fed Fun(ds)
06 May 2022 |
By Liam Montgomery
READ TIME 5 mins
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Currency & Cash
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Australian Cash Rate – What’s Priced In? Pt2
08 Apr 2022 |
By Mason Stevens
READ TIME 5 mins
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In the month since we last detailed RBA cash rate expectations, a lot has happened where the market has raised rate hike expectations aggressively. Specifically, projecting a cash rate of 2.15% by year end, with over 2% of rate hikes...
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- Currency & Cash
The Australian Cash Rate – What’s Priced in?
04 Mar 2022 |
By Mason Stevens
READ TIME 6 mins
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Putting the topic of the Russia-Ukraine war aside for a day, higher and more sustained inflation is still front-and-centre for investment decision making this year, as well as the likely reaction function that central banks will have in dealing with...
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It's that time of the year where we start to aggregate our views to provide tactical positioning for the 2022 calendar year. I've elected to start off our "Outlook" notes series by tackling what I find to be the hardest...
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In the past month since we’ve spoken about the trajectory of our AUD and its valuation, quite a lot has changed where AUD/USD has found support and the fundamentals are improving. We nuance our views with the concept of “horizon...
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- Currency & Cash
Patient Powell and the RBA Bank Safeguard
24 Sep 2021 |
By Mason Stevens
READ TIME 4 mins
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This has been a fast moving week, between a live Fed policy meeting, the AUKUS agreement and nuclear submarines, the looming spectre of China Evergrande missing bond coupon payments, and RBA providing an explicit framework for how it can provide...
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Historically, our AUD’s worth has been defined by three key criteria – commodity prices, interest rate differentials (“carry”) and China. In respect of the developments of 2020, we can now add COVID-19, creating the “four C’s” framework. In today’s note...
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The RBA met for their monthly policy meeting yesterday and their statement surprised slightly dovish, having re-affirmed their decision to taper their asset purchase program, but doing so in a slowly manner than previously stated. Whilst this is dovish and...
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- Currency & Cash
I’m Sorry Ms Jackson [Hole]
30 Aug 2021 |
By Mason Stevens
READ TIME 6 mins
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In the weeks leading towards the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, we weren’t expecting anything profoundly shocking to eventuate, where the Fed – like other central banks – has been slowly providing forward guidance to avoid another calamitous “Taper Tantrum” that...
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