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Currency & Cash
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Globally, inflation, as measured by CPI, is rising quite broadly, across most developed and emerging economies, and at an accelerating rate. As a result, central banks are being scrutinised more intensely as the “transitory” narrative of 2021 has been discarded,...READ MORE
In the month since we last detailed RBA cash rate expectations, a lot has happened where the market has raised rate hike expectations aggressively. Specifically, projecting a cash rate of 2.15% by year end, with over 2% of rate hikes...READ MORE
Putting the topic of the Russia-Ukraine war aside for a day, higher and more sustained inflation is still front-and-centre for investment decision making this year, as well as the likely reaction function that central banks will have in dealing with...READ MORE
It's that time of the year where we start to aggregate our views to provide tactical positioning for the 2022 calendar year. I've elected to start off our "Outlook" notes series by tackling what I find to be the hardest...READ MORE
In the past month since we’ve spoken about the trajectory of our AUD and its valuation, quite a lot has changed where AUD/USD has found support and the fundamentals are improving. We nuance our views with the concept of “horizon...READ MORE
This has been a fast moving week, between a live Fed policy meeting, the AUKUS agreement and nuclear submarines, the looming spectre of China Evergrande missing bond coupon payments, and RBA providing an explicit framework for how it can provide...READ MORE
Historically, our AUD’s worth has been defined by three key criteria – commodity prices, interest rate differentials (“carry”) and China. In respect of the developments of 2020, we can now add COVID-19, creating the “four C’s” framework. In today’s note...READ MORE
The RBA met for their monthly policy meeting yesterday and their statement surprised slightly dovish, having re-affirmed their decision to taper their asset purchase program, but doing so in a slowly manner than previously stated. Whilst this is dovish and...READ MORE
In the weeks leading towards the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, we weren’t expecting anything profoundly shocking to eventuate, where the Fed – like other central banks – has been slowly providing forward guidance to avoid another calamitous “Taper Tantrum” that...READ MORE
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