Weekend Reading | “It’s Five O’Clock Somewhere”

Just Call an Election Already!

If you’ve been watching ScoMo tour NSW and VIC this week, you’d be forgiven for thinking that an election was just a few days away, having popped up in kitchens, barbershops and suburban streets of marginal seats, to show off how he’s an everyman’s man.

The thing is: an election won’t be this year.

Our elections MUST be on a Saturday and must allow at least 33 days of campaigning beforehand.

This means we can only do 18 or 25 of Dec in this year, where neither is feasible.

The absolute last date an election can be held for both Houses is 21 May 2021, with the Senate term expiring at the end of May.

Therefore, March to May is likely the time of year, where the popular theory is for an election to be held for March and called just around Australia Day.

This way, the PM and the current government can hopefully ride on the coat tails of a reunited feeling after summer months, and a refreshed public starting to forget about lockdowns.

Quitting Drinking By 2050

“A Sydney man has set an ambitious target to phase out his alcohol consumption within the next 29 years, as part of an impressive plan to improve his health.

The program will see Greg Taylor, 73, continue to drink as normal for the foreseeable future, before reducing consumption in 2049 when he turns 101. He has assured friends it will not affect his drinking plans in the short or medium term.

Taylor said it was important not to rush the switch to non-alcoholic beverages.

“It’s not realistic to transition to zero alcohol overnight. This requires a steady, phased approach where nothing changes for at least two decades,” he said, adding that he may need to make additional investments in beer consumption in the short term, to make sure no night out is worse off.

Taylor will also be able to bring forward drinking credits earned from the days he hasn’t drunk over the past forty years, meaning the actual end date for consumption may actually be 2060.

To assist with the transition, Taylor has bought a second beer fridge which he describes as for ‘capture and storage’ method.”

The above lovely parody was published by The Shovel and can be read in full here.

Below is what our pathway should look like, with a sharp decline in emissions in the coming 10-15 years in order to achieve Paris Agreement levels.

Top Ticking

On 7-Nov Elon Musk posted a poll on Twitter asking whether he should or should not sell 10% of his Tesla stock holding.

Musk received ~3.5mln votes where ~58% said yes, to which he “apparently” used as his reason for selling his stock.

The unreported side of things is that he had to sell anyway as it’s liquid and he needed to pay taxes.

The most important thing to realise is that Elon knows THIS was a good time to sell TSLA, around $1,200 USD/share, not just because ~4 million random people voted that it was a good idea.

It’s a tax decision but ALSO an investment decision.

Cathie Wood has also been selling TSLA stock since it got to her $4,000 price target (pre-stock split).

Doesn’t mean Tesla won’t go higher, but the insiders are telling you now is a good time to sell, not to buy.

The Chart No One Wanted

About a year ago a valued client of mine shared with me some wisdom – no one likes reading about government debt levels, but you kind of need to write about it sometimes. Thanks Kyle.

That level of insight shaped the content I’ve published this past year or two, where I don’t talk about government debt that much, anymore.

However, as a periodic update:

Here’s how TOTAL debt per country stands, not just government.

Now you could say “one person’s liability is another person’s asset” which is true in the accounting sense….

But in the economic sense a s-load of the assets are in illiquid holdings and likely causing a boat load of taxable events should they be liquidated, which is why economic growth slows down when national debt increases >80% of GDP.

Hahahahaha…

80% of GDP, that’d be the dream right now……

Planning Your Life

As a former MM broker and STIR trader, I am habitually aware of what is 30/90/180/365 days ahead.

As such, I wish to pass on that 22/2/22 is a Tuesday – already being called “Tues-Tuesday” – and is the last of such significant dates – called “angel numbers” – for a long while.

I’d suggest planning a memorable event for the day, and as someone who was married on 19/10/19, I can vouchsafe that these types of anniversaries are easiest to remember.

Baltic Dry

One of the most closely followed measures of shipping costs is the Baltic Dry Index, cited as a leading indicator for much of this year foreshadowing the “persistently transitory” inflation dynamic.

Worth noting that the Index has fallen off >35% in the past month, though still well higher than 2020 levels, but only a hair above pre-COVID levels experienced in 2019.

Dry Jokes for the Weekend:

• What do you call a factory that makes average products?
  • Satisfactory

• I only know 25 letters of the alphabet
  • I don’t know Y

• I asked my cat what’s 2 minus 2 equal…
  • He said nothing

• My wife asked me when I came home on Tuesday if I got a haircut
  • I told her I got ALL of them cut

• What time did my wife go to the dentist?
  • Tooth hurty

To finish and for no reason, here’s a pic of my Bruno inside my wife’s handbag.

He’s a good boy and wants all of the head rubs.

– Have a great weekend.